iPhone Fold might already be delayed

I want to share my little conspiracy theory here so it's written down somewhere. It sure seems like that iPhone Fold isn't coming in 2026, and indications are mounting.

Not only has the supply chain not said anything about mass production beginning, there are repeated reports of issues in testing the device. Yet, we're hearing from at least a couple of adamant sources with mixed histories that Apple is determined to release the iPhone Fold in September.

I'm not so sure.

The latest set of indicators came from two separate reports. One said the iPhone Air 2 was coming in the spring, and another said the iPhone Fold 2 would arrive in September 2027.

In order for both of those things to be true, I expect Apple's iPhone Fold launch would need to go well. Basically, ramping up iPhone Fold production from August to December only to reveal a new iPhone Air in April seems a bit aggressive and defeats the purpose of the split launch.

Then, after months of ramping up, to prepare the supply chain for an entire second-generation model of that troubled foldable? Something isn't adding up.

Of course, everything could go as it has been rumored, or any number of ways otherwise. But I'm going to offer what I think is more likely.

I'm happy to be wrong here, and may be, but given the evidence, I feel it is important to voice this:

That rumored iPhone Fold 2 shared recently? That's actually the first-generation model delayed by a year. To me, that's the only way all these pieces fit together.

Instead of releasing an iPhone Fold in the middle of a chip shortage driving up prices, with a slow production ramp, punt it a year and pray market conditions improve. There's no reason to rush out a device that's a form factor that has existed since 2019.

See if the chip supply gets better, fix all these potential production issues, and ramp up over 2027 for a big launch in the fall. Announcing that alongside a 20th-anniversary iPhone could be really interesting.

Of course, there's the fact that the entire foldable market is waiting for Apple to validate the product line. If Apple waits another year, I wonder if the foldable market will survive.

There's also a chance that in that intervening year Apple changes its mind and cancels the product altogether. Anything is possible.

It is clear that if the iPhone Fold is not announced in September, it may never be announced at all. The foldable market and the supply chain need an Apple foldable, which is likely why we're getting such conflicting rumors.

They need the iPhone Fold to launch and succeed. Any suggestion otherwise is their potential demise.